…Attributes reason to country’s crude oil production far below its OPEC quota.
by Achadu Gabriel, Kaduna
The success of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” and Nigeria’s economic prosperity beyond 2027 is critically dependent on achieving excellence in regulatory frameworks and reversing the decline in the upstream oil and gas sector.
This was contained in Research Paper presented by Professor Usman Muhammad, of Department of Political Science and International Studies, Kaduna State University, at the occasion of the ‘1st Citizens Engagement Conference, North-West Edition,’ held in Kaduna on Monday.
during the event in Kaduna on Monday.
He revealed that “Nigeria lost an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline sabotage between 2019 and 2024, a primary reason the country’s crude oil production has stagnated at an average of 1.4 million barrels per day, significantly below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million.
“This shortfall,” the report asserts, “is the single biggest constraint on turning oil wealth into sustainable national prosperity,” he stated.
Prof. Muhammad, in the Paper argued that without strategic reforms, the nation risks continued underperformance, despite its vast oil and gas reserves.
The study identified a direct link between the performance of the upstream oil sector and Nigeria’s economic health, and highlighted a “positive, yet, weak” correlation due to massive revenue leaks.
While citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and OPEC, Prof. Muhammad’s research paints a grim picture of the sector’s contribution, which has fallen from nearly 9% of GDP, in 2019, to about 6.6% in 2024. “During this period, investment in the sector also declined by 24%, attributing to fiscal uncertainty and insecurity.”
The Paper emphasizes that “This underperformance has occurred, despite the landmark Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, which was designed to overhaul the sector but has been hampered by implementation gaps and institutional inefficiencies,” he stated.
On ways to reverse this trend, Prof. Muhammad’s study prescribed a relentless focus on “regulatory excellence, anchored on transparency, efficiency and accountability.”
Accordingly, he called for the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the NNPC Limited to harmonize their operations to eliminate bottlenecks, accelerate licensing rounds, and attract critical foreign investment.
The report suggests that effective implementation of the PIA, combined with enhanced security for oil infrastructure, could increase fiscal revenues by an estimated N3.2 trillion annually.
The study benchmarks Nigeria’s performance against global leaders like Norway and Saudi Arabia, noting that these nations have achieved production stability and economic diversification through strong, transparent regulatory institutions and state-corporate synergy.
In contrast, Nigeria’s output of 1.4 million bpd, in 2024, paled in comparison to Norway’s 1.9 million and Saudi Arabia’s 9.2 million, underscoring the vast room for improvement.
Ultimately, the research positions a revitalized oil and gas sector not as an end in itself, but as the essential catalyst for funding the broader “Renewed Hope Agenda.”
It argued that revenues from a well-managed upstream sector are crucial for diversifying the economy, building infrastructure, creating jobs, and achieving the sustainable economic prosperity the administration promises for the years after 2027.
Also speaking in an interview with newsmen, the Co-convener of the Conference, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, stated that the essence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government is to foster accountability and inform citizens about its policies, particularly the tough but necessary reforms in the oil and gas sector.
He argued that a lack of information leads to public misunderstanding and allows external and internal forces to destabilize the government.
AbdulQuadri vigorously defended the government’s decision to fully deregulate the oil sectors, stating that its primary goal is to “kill the corruption” associated with the old subsidy regime.
“Over time, people have been looting subsidies. A lot of people have enriched themselves. So, by the time we deregulate, I don’t think there is any reason that we go into a private environment and say you want to loot,” he asserted.
He positioned the proposed sale of the country’s moribund refineries as a key part of this reform, asserting that, “It’s not the government’s business to run business,” but to regulate it.
Pointing to a tangible success story, the co-convener highlighted the Dangote Refinery as a direct and positive outcome of the policy environment created by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.
“You can now imagine that even some powerful nations are angry because we are now being independent of them, in terms of refining our own oil. So, these are the kind of the result of PIA of 2021,” he said, stressing that “This energy independence was long overdue.”
AbdulQuadri explained that the conference was organized by an NGO to create a platform where citizens can hold leaders accountable and also understand government policies.
He, therefore, called for “national unity, transcending ethnic and religious divisions,” adding, “We only have two people in this country: good and bad people. The bad people are the ones using religion, tribe and everything so that we can use against each other,” he stated, urging all “good people” to unite and support the reforms for a greater Nigeria.
The co-convener acknowledged the hardship caused by reforms like the subsidy removal, but appealed for public patience, describing reform as “very tough.”
He clarified that the call is not for Nigerians to “keep quiet” but to actively ask questions and engage, which will in turn make the government more “responsible and responsive.”